What is the Asian Handicap Market?
The Asian Handicap Market is a specific type of handicap market unique to soccer. Conventional soccer handicap markets - like the other markets available for many gambling sports bonus Parimatch - usually seek to roughly equalize the odds of either side in a bet by awarding an advantage (or disadvantage) of points/kicks/pins to one side.
In the soccer Asian Handicap, in addition to whole goal and half goal, you will also find quarter and three-quarter goals, where special betting rules apply (with half wins and half losses).
How do we compare Asian handicap lines to outcomes?
While Asian handicap odds can be translated into implied outcome probabilities, they are more difficult to compare to actual outcomes. For match outcomes, we can simply look at the percentage of teams with specific odds that go on to win. But how can we do this for specific handicap values? For example, if we have 100 teams with a -0.25 handicap and a fair odds of 2.00, what is the expected outcome?
The solution is to compare handicaps to actual match totals and, in particular, the goal difference of the match. If the average goal advantage for those 100 teams was 0.25 compared to their opponents, that would be evidence of the effectiveness of the odds at that sample resolution.
However, there are several other problems. First, the Asian handicap markets offer a number of different handicap values for individual matches. Which of these do we choose to analyze? The handicap we are most interested in is the one that most accurately equalizes both sides, or the one where the implied probabilities of winning are close to 50%. This is usually the most popular handicap with the players who see the most benefit and the lowest margin.
Second, we need the odds of the opponents to be exactly 50%/50% to be able to reliably compare them to the actual results, since by definition a 50/50 handicap size is equivalent to the expected superiority of one team over the other.
Fortunately, we can estimate an accurate 50%/50% handicap size based on actual odds. We just need to determine how they change when the handicap changes.